Here’s how I see this battle between Apple and Adobe. For Adobe, losing would be a large-scale abandonment of Flash by web producers — sites that previously used Flash abandoning it, and new sites never using it in the first place. For Apple, losing would be if the absence of Flash on iOS devices led to people choosing competing devices that do support Flash — i.e. if the absence of Flash for iOS hurt sales of iPhones, iPod Touches, and iPads.
via Daring Fireball – How to Judge the Battle Between Apple and Adobe Regarding Flash. My bet, Apple or rather open standards (ie. HTML5 video and audio technologies) will win in the long run. Flash will slowly decline further and further as it become a less useful platform upon which to operate under or with. HTML5 will be a long and slow pick up due to older browsers not supporting it specifically, Internet Explorer and those people and corporations who are slow to update.
Video is pretty safe to say that Flash is going to be secondary way to display video not the primary. All other uses of Flash if they haven’t been replaced are about to be replaced with alternatives that aren’t as hard to build and overall have better performance for all users including mobile users.